MLB Over/Under Team Wins Picks

Finally, another 162 game stretch for Major League Baseball is back. The 60 game season last year was a nice taste but not the full meal. This season looks to have your normal candidates in contention, with some intriguing teams making big moves to have a run at the fall classic. Today we’re going to make a pick on all 30 teams over/under projections based off our affiliate BetOnline.ag

AL East

Baltimore Orioles o63.5

The Orioles are very clearly a bottom dweller in the baseball world in the middle of a complete overhaul. Starting pitching will be an issue but the offense may surprise some. The O’s improve on last years .417 win percentage and hit the over.

Boston Red Sox u79.5

Boston hasn’t been the same since their world series title in 2018. A bad bullpen and questions in the outfield, including the loss of Andrew Benintendi makes this team hard to project. Boston finished last in the AL East a season ago and just don’t seem ready to play .500 baseball yet.

New York Yankees u95.5

New York is full of big bats. They are capable of putting up runs and shutting down opponents. A full season of Gerrit Cole bolsters their pitching staff. However, injuries have plagued this team each year. Until they prove they can stay healthy this team won’t hit the 100 wins they’re capable of.

Tampa Bay Rays o85.5

Tampa Bay ran away with the AL East division last year finishing 7 games ahead of the Yankees. The loss of Blake Snell and Charlie Morton hurt a starting pitching staff that was already working with an “opener” type of strategy. Chris Archer returns to the Rays from Pittsburgh to take the sting off the losses. Kevin Cash just seems to always find a way to get the job done. The team won’t hit the .667 winning mark they did a year ago but 90 wins is doable.

Toronto Blue Jays o86.5

Toronto may be one of the most exciting teams in baseball. The young guns Vlad Guerrero Jr, Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette all bring flare to an offense capable of scoring with the best. Adding George Springer only boosts that offense. The Jays might be a starting pitcher away from contending for the AL crown but expect this team to be a wild card team come October.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox o90.5

The White Sox have been a popular pick to break out for a few years now. Last year’s shortened season saw them win 35 games and take another step toward a division crown. Adding Lance Lynn helps a strong top of the rotation. This is the year they win the AL Central.

Cleveland Indians u81.5

Much like the Red Sox, the Indians have been trending downward since their World Series appearance in 2016. Cleveland looks like it’s committing to a miniature rebuild with younger players. This was evident by trading staples Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets in return four players. This will be a step back year for the Indians.

Detroit Tigers u67.6

The Tigers have had one of the worst bullpens in baseball for many many years and have refused to address it. This was another offseason they refused to address the pitching situation. Instead they are relying on their prospects to develop and address it. This probably won’t happen in 2021.

Kansas City Royals u74.5

The Royals on the other hand have had one of the best bullpens in baseball since their trip to the World Series. Keeping those relievers in tact is the strength of this club. Having a good bullpen won’t help if you can’t score runs though. The offense wasn’t addressed much in the offseason after placing 24th in runs scored in 2020.

Minnesota Twins o89.5

Minnesota and Chicago will be one of the best races for a division championship this season. Minnesota has won back to back AL Central titles. The Twins may struggle to score some runs with their big ballpark and could need to address this at the trade deadline. But it may not matter with Michael Pineda, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and the additions of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker.

AL West

Houston Astros u87.5

The Astros lost two key cogs in the outfield in George Springer and Josh Reddick. Since their World Series they’ve lost Gerrit Cole and Dalls Keuchel. Last season was a bit of a struggle finishing under .500 after winning 107 games in 2019. Expect the slide to continue.

Los Angeles Angels o83.5

Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball since he stepped on the diamond but he can’t win games by himself. The Angels needed a LOT of starting pitching help and they’ve seemed to try to address them by signing Jose Quintana and trading for Alex Cobb. If these two additions help, the Angels will finish over .500 this season.

Oakland Athletics o86.5

Moneyball continues to reign in Oakland. Their bullpen isn’t great and they gave up Khris Davis in exchange for Elvis Andrus from Texas. Liam Hendriks moved on to the White Sox. Unbeknownst to the world on how this team will continue to compete but they will find a way.

Seattle Mariners u72.5

Seattle posted an AL high bullpen ERA in 2020. They made moves to address that signing Ken Giles and trading for Rafael Montero. Much like the Royals, this won’t matter if the team can’t score runs and currently the roster doesn’t seem apt to score runs.

Texas Rangers u67.6

This team STINKS. The Rangers can’t score runs and have little to no pitching. They’ll be in the cellar of the AL West.

NL East

Atlanta Braves o91.5

The Braves pitching staff is average at best. The team made a step to address this in signing Charlie Morton. If the pitching is decent, the offense led by Ronald Acuna Jr will make up for the rest and give Atlanta a run for another NL East title.

Miami Marlins o71.5

The Marlins may have been the shock of the 2020 season finishing above .500 after posting just 57 wins in 2019. If the 2020 season were to run the full 162 games it would be expected the Marlins to not keep up their torrid pace. However, it seems Don Mattingly has the players buying in and could make a run for .500 baseball again.

New York Mets o90.5

Much like the Twins and White Sox, the race between the Mets and Braves for the NL East title should be tight. Having Jacob DeGrom and acquiring Francisco Lindor will keep this team in any game, at least every 5 days. Some run support for DeGrom would be a huge boost. Noah Syndergaard returning will also help.

Philadelphia Phillies o81.5

A disappointing two seasons since signing Bryce Harper to a 13 year deal has the Phillies entering year 3 with their all world player. Resigning J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius will keep the offense afloat. The Phillies did post the second worst bullpen in baseball history in 2020. Some moves were made to address the hole a bit but this team still won’t get much further above .500 where they’ve finished around two straight years.

Washington Nationals o84.5

The Nationals have starting pitching with Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and adding Jon Lester. Superstar outfielder Juan Soto leads a pretty good offense. If Kyle Schwarber can contribute a bit this team will make the NL East a three horse race.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs u78.5

The Cubs seem to be in a free fall now after losing almost their entire starting rotation. No Lester, Quintana, or Darvish. This doesn’t fair well for a team that struggled to score runs in 2020. The Cubs need a bat and two or three arms to get over 75 wins.

Cincinnati Reds u81.5

The Reds were a bit of a surprise finishing over .500 in 2020. The team doesn’t bat well for average (.212) in 2020. Losing Trevor Bauer will deplete the rotation. Don’t expect the Reds to repeat their 2020 success. They won’t hit .500 this year.

Milwaukee Brewers o83.5

Yet another team that struggles to score runs in the NL Central. The Brewers didn’t do much to improve their run scoring in the offseason. A team that pitches well will always have a chance. But the Brewers seem to have remained the same. The only thing getting them over .500 is playing in a weak division.

Pittsburgh Pirates u59.5

This team is worse than the Rangers. Potentially the worst in baseball. Enough said.

St. Louis Cardinals o86.5

Resigning Adam Wainwright and trading for Nolan Arenado is plenty to win the division. After all someone has to win it. Expect the Cardinals to run through NL Central play and finish close to 90 wins.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks u75.5

The Diamondbacks lost two frontline starters and with a hot and cold offense this could be detrimental. The 2020 team finished under .500 so expect this trend to continue. The only thing that would change this is some big moves at the deadline but with not much to give it could hurt before it helps.

Colorado Rockies u67.6

A team that can’t pitch and one that just lost Nolan Arenado and David Dahl doesn’t bode well playing against the Padres and Dodgers much of the season. The team needs some young help to contend in the next few years and they will not contend this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers u101.5

The Dodgers are stacked. Ridiculously stacked. Adding Trevor Bauer stacked them even more. Finally getting the job done in their 3rd straight World Series appearance, the Dodgers are the favorite to win the NL West yet again. The Padres will take some wins for them and they’ll finish just shy of 100 wins.

San Diego Padres o94.5

Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado may be the best left side of the infield in baseball history. The Padres were able to add Blake Snell to a rotation that already has Yu Darvish and are poised to give the Dodgers a run at the NL West title finally. Expect them to push 100 wins if not eclipse it.

San Francisco Giants o75.5

The Giants can hit a little. Their pitching has lacked. Adding Alex Wood and bringing back veteran Kevin Gausman will give some help in the pitching department. The NL West will be tough but the Giants should be right around .500 as they were in 2020.

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