Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Pitching Probable’s: Urías (LA) vs. Webb (SF)
The Astro and Redsox flexed their muscles in the ALDS while the Braves outfought the Brewers over four pitchers duels. The Dodgers and Giants however, will take the field for what feels like the final act of a theatrical drama. Tonight will bring us baseball at its best. Two 100+ win teams linked in history as former New York City rivals now 3,000 miles removed yet still the same. One carries expectations of continued Championships and a chance at the sports first back-to-back title run in twenty years while the other hopes to pen another chapter in its 2021 Cinderella story. As always feel free to comment on social and let @SportsShiftMedia know your thoughts.
On the Bump
The Boys in Blue will send young super-star Julio Urías to the mound tonight in arguably the biggest spot of his career. In his one outing this series he looked as good as advertised going five with five Ks and a win. While his season numbers are great, his Postseason numbers are incredible. Over 19 outings Urías is 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Pitching for the Dodgers has allowed the 25 year-old a unique opportunity at garnishing a lengthy playoff resume early on in his career, and he has made the most of it.
The Giants will counter Urías with their own young stud: Logan Webb. Webb was even better than Urías in his one outing posting 7.2 IP without allowing a run and striking out 10. The 0.65 WHIP is particularly exceptional for a 24 year-old with zero playoff experience coming into that start. He will have his hands full this evening with a potent Dodger lineup that has seen Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger among others start to heat up in recent days.
FanDuel: -110 Giants, -106 Dodgers
The line odds are where we expected them. While the game is being played in San Francisco, they certainly should not be large favorites with how impressive Urías has been in his Postseason career and with just how inexperienced the Giants are in this spot. With that being said we absolutely do not recommend laying to much on the Dodgers either as the Giants have shown use time and again in 2021 that they do not care what the odds are or what the experts think.
Run as far away as possible from the live outright odds. We have no idea which direction to swing here. This Giants team has a magic to them this year that is not worth betting against but unfortunately the Dodgers are simply so overloaded with talent that putting green against them is asking to get burnt. The only spot we have some interest in is the under at -122 for 7.5. With these starters paired with the difficulty of scoring runs in San Francisco the 7.5 feels large.
Where we do see some value here is in the player props. Logan Webb’s over/under strikeout total is at 5.5. Webb punched out 10 in his last outing against this lineup, and the Giants are one of the few teams without the ability to run four-five bullpen arms out there. On the flip side Urías sits at 4.5. This is low but given Urías’ K numbers over his career and Postseason career it is certainly worth a look; not to mention how quick of a hook Dave Roberts is certain to have in this spot. On offense take your pick on the hits odds. We parlayed Bryant and Betts to each have two hit games.
Hit that Webb over and Urías under for strikeouts. The Giants are going to be riding Webb while the Dodgers are going to be looking at using the bullpen. Urías only went five in his previous start, striking out five, while Webb’s 7.2 IP is near the most we have seem a pitcher go in the Postseason for any team. Don’t overspend on the offensive side but give some hit odds some love.
The two must have spots here are Webb’s over and Urías’ under. The other value pick is the game total under. Neither of these starters are prone to stinkers and both bullpens have enough solid arms to squash a back-door over. Outside of that there are far too many variables in this matchup to feel comfortable taking outright odds of outright covers.
Whoever wins will be moving on to face a Braves squad for a chance at a World Series spot. The early odds on that series, regardless of the winner tonight, are looking enjoyable for betters. Dodgers vs. Giants. Urías vs. Webb. Get ready for a fun one tonight.